what you see depends on where you are standing

The Switch Point


Betting market prices, driven by social mood, fluctuate erratically, generating a sense of uncertainty. Under such conditions, people more often than not conclude that it would be optimal to switch from their own personal perceptions towards the information that is being communicated by the crowd. More often than not, they will place a disproportionate amount of weight on the significance of a betting market price move when it is backed up by significant volume.

2:00 Ayr. Cupids Arrow. If the rain arrives the money will too.



15:50 York: This betting market should provide a masterclass in tactical positioning.

19:30 Beverley . Maqaadeer. The very simple strategy of laying the Dane O'Neill drifters has come unstuck recently, which should make the late trading on this race ery interesting.



15:50 York: This betting market should provide a masterclass in tactical positioning.


Blinkers Off




UK - Brexit - No Deal Brexit in 2019 - Yes or No?



The betting market just ain't buying a No Deal Brexit.


No Deal Brexit Implied Probability
YES 29%
NO 71%



Listed Gambling Companies



Is the US betting market dividend back in play for UK listed betting companies. Yes, if you believe the folk at the Dow Jones & Company owned MarketWatch who on Saturday penned a feature entitled 5 stocks set to soar from the U.S. sports betting boom. Let's see how the market responds on Monday morning.

GVC Holdings delivered a post close H1 trading update on 17 July 2019. Online NGR +17%. UK Retail like-for-like NGR -10%. European Retail NGR +7%. Total Group NGR +5% (+6% cc2). As regards the US Betting MARKET the company said: In the US, Roar Digital, our JV with MGM Resorts, is on-track for its full online launch ahead of the NFL season in September. In the first half of the year the Group was granted licences in Mississippi and Nevada, and Roar Digital received a transactional waiver to conduct business in New Jersey.



Companies 2018 Year High Current Price Change (%)
GVC Holdings 1170 630 -47%
Flutter Entertainment 9123 7002 -24%
William Hill 336 163 -51%



Betsson Flops



Betsson the scandic betting market facing bookmakers have published their interim report for the period 1 January- 30June 2019. And what a sorry read it makes. QUARTER APRIL –JUNE2019: Group revenue was SEK 1,277.7 million, a decrease of 5 percent with an organic decrease of 4 percent. Casino revenue declined by 10 percent and Sportsbook revenue grew by 14 percent, with a sportsbook margin of 7.8 (6.3) percent. Operating income (EBIT) was SEK 196.9 (300.7) million, equivalent to an EBIT margin of 15.4 (22.3) percent. PERIOD JANUARY –JUNE 2019: Operating income (EBIT) was SEK 452.1 (512.1) million, a decrease of 12 percent. Shares in Betsson are getting hammered in response to the results - down 8.2% in early trading. Revenue from the Nordics was SEK 519.3 (621.9) million, a decrease of 17 percent, with 18 percent organic decrease. Revenue from Western Europe amounted to SEK 392.2 (443.5) million, a decrease of 12 percent, with 14 percent organic decrease. Revenue from Central & Eastern Europe and Central Asia (CEECA) amounted to SEK 284.2(214.4) million, an increase of 33 percent. Locally taxed revenue (revenue from markets where Betsson pays local betting duties)increased by 42 percent compared to the second quarter last year and amounted to SEK 457.4 (323.2) million, corresponding to 35.8 (24.0) percent of Group revenue. The increase is mainly due to revenue from Sweden and Italy. Betsson is a company that needs to learn that giving money back to shareholders does not compensate for a lack of strategic insight. They also need to realise that having a piece of PR fluff on calvynayre.com proclaiming that you are smashing the newly regulated Swedish betting market - does not mean that you actually are.

U.S. Sports-Betting Market To Hit $5.7bn By 2024

Statistics relating to the size of the UK betting market.


CRYPTO/BLIPTO

This is how much you would have lost had you bought INTO the notion of decentralised prediction market cryptocurrency companies Augur and Gnosis at the top of the market. And yes, that is right, if you bought the Augur cryptocurrency at the top of the market are still looking at an astonishing loss of 90%! Investors in these companies, because of their psychological profiles are particularly prone to the disposition effect.