You can price risk, but not uncertainty.

Sweden Supported

World Cup Day 5: The general consensus would seem to be that the current South Korea side are a shadow of their former selves, and certainly worse than the team that failed to dazzle in the 2014 World Cup. This fact is backed up by the fact that in 2018 the team have lost to Bosnia, N.Ireland and Senegal. Sweden have not exactly set the world alight either, but the betting market is very much leaning towards a Swedish victory and by 1-0. Sweden are currently trading on Betfair at 2.34.

World Cup Day 4: Professionals are smashing into Serbia.

Royal Ascot Day 1: Coventry Stakes.

It is not rocket science to assume that Calyx, having run green on debut, but won in such an impressive fashion, may be open to more improvement than Sergei Prokofiev, and, accordingly, it is no surprise to see that the professionals are getting stuck into Calyx, with many also prepared to take on Sergei Prokofiev in the Betfair betting exchange Coventry Stakes betting market (below). It was noted at 8.45am that somebody popped up looking to get on £4K at 4.0 - £700 of which was matched before the bots took over. Expect to see a deluge of money for Calyx over the next 24 hours.

A rare glimpse is provided into where the infamous syndicates will be playing on day one: Chelkar (5.00) and Wootton (4.20).

Croatia are proving weak in the betting market ahead of their World Cup opener.

Blinkers Off

Southern France

.... by way of contrast and to confuse the picture a little, we can look at the best progeny of Galileo, when he has been crossed with daughters of the July Cup and Prix Maurice De Gheest winner Anabaa. All things being equal, and given the stamina limitations of Gustav Klimt, Mars and Wonderfully, one might expect the progeny of such a mating to come up short in the stamina department. One would of course be wrong. Capri, Southern France and Lush Lashes have all managed to win over middle distances, with Capri landing the 2017 St Leger, Lush Lashes the Yorkshire Oaks and Southern France recently landing the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Yeats Stakes run over 1m 5f, and very much putting himself in the frame for the 2018 running of the St Leger (and, also, a best-price 3/1 for the Queens Vase at Royal Ascot). When it comes to Galileo and stamina on the dam side, Anabaa is very much the exception to the rule.

Horse Sire Dam Damsire SDS*
Southern France Galileo Alta Anna Anabaa 8.3f
Lush Lashes Galileo Dance for Fun Anabaa 8.3f
Capri Galileo Dialafara Anabaa 8.3f

SDS* = Stamina on the dam side.

For many of us, the best race of the week will be the Queens Vase, the 1m 6f race restricted to three-year-olds. O'Brien has three of the top four in the betting.

Nelson, whose dam is Darley Irish Oaks winner Moonstone won the Ballysax Stakes (Group 3)before flopping in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial Stakes. He is by the brilliant Frankel, whose progeny get a trip, when there is sufficient stamina on the dam side. UAE King, of course, won the John Guest Brown Jack Handicap at Asoct over 2m on Good To Soft going, whilst The Grand Viser recently won the Amix Ready Mixed Concrete Handicap run at Haydock, also over 2m. The fact that he has achieved a Racing Post Rating of 114, against just a best 98 for Southern France, suggest that they should be much closer in the betting market than they currently are. Betfair have consistently ducked Nelson in this betting market and it is noted that they are only going 4/1 against a best-priced 7/1.

Horse Sire Dam Damsire SDS*
Nelson Frankel Moonstone Dalakhani 11.2f
Weekender Frankel Very Good News Empire Maker 9.6f
Aljezeera Frankel Dynaforce Dynaformer 11.7f
UAE King Frankel Zomaradah Deploy 11.8f
The Grand Viser Frankel Piping Montjeu 11.8f

SDS* = Stamina on the dam side.

The final O'Brien player of note in the field is the Betfred Derby Trial Stakes second Kew Gardens, who many fancied to upset the odds in the Epsom Derby (finished a well beaten 9th). There is enough class in the pedigree to suggest that he can be there or thereabouts.

Horse Sire Dam Damsire SDS*
Kew Gardens Galileo Chelsea Rose Desert King 10.2f

It is to be hoped that Niall Sloane at ITV Racing will have the common sense to rein Brian Gleeson in at Royal Ascot. The idiotic sight of this guy claiming, every time there is a runner from the Aidan O'Brien stable Ballydoyle really fancy this one has served to undermine any confidence that punters may have had in the betting market. And indeed, his comments are nothing more than unsubstantiated twaddle.

Edwin Schrodinger: Every man's world picture is and always remains a construct of his mind and can not be proved to have existence.

Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side