what you see depends on where you are standing

What If Everyone Is Wrong


Ultimately, even though he can have no direct perception of the future, a trader must decide to act. The decision to act is reached through a process of processes interconnected with emotions, rational thoughts, subjective experiences and cognition. The intelligent trader moves to take advantage of the environment, weighing up how correct a decision or action is in the light of the current context that he finds himself in. Intelligence is linked to the ability to adapt to the context.

14:25 York Fri 23 Aug - Betting against current consensus positioning is often a dangerous occupation. Having said that, Stradivarius is going to represent a spoofers' delight - currently trading at 1.47. DEE EX BEE will be the subject of significant market support between now and post time.



SOMETIMES THE SIGNAL IS HIDDEN IN THE SPOOFING.

15:00 York Thu 22 Aug. Baltic Baron who had been well supported in the ante-post market, was a notable betting exchange drifter before the race. Nothing to see - move along now. " Held up towards rear, effort and some headway on outer 3f out, soon ridden and never dangerous (op 10/1)"



SOMETIMES THE SIGNAL IS HIDDEN IN THE SPOOFING.


Blinkers Off




UK - Brexit - No Deal Brexit in 2019 - Yes or No?



2019 general election in view and not because Johnson is ready to gamble to break deadlock on departure from EU, but, rather, because circumstances are going to conspire so that he has no choice. The implied probability that 2019 will be the Year of Next UK Election is now 73%.

The betting market is slowly, but surely, coming around to the idea of a No Deal Brexit.


No Deal Brexit Implied Probability
YES 40%
NO 60%


Listed UK Gambling Companies - Night Swimming


Hardly rocket science. With most of the bad news now factored in these shares are going to be the potential recipients of US betting market related upside surprise. However, the problem remains that this is a sector that is simply no longer in vogue. From the perspective of 2019 WILLIAM HILL is the winner up 19% to date, with GVC up 18% and Flutter Entertainment once again lagging the field.

Kenneth Alexander, GVC's CEO, a man whose actions in selling his shares in the company earlier in the year saw the company's share price take a mjaor hit, has today dipped into his rather large pockets and sought redemption " The purchase of £5m worth of shares demonstrates my conviction that GVC's strategy and long-term outlook will provide shareholders with strong returns, as supported by the continued positive momentum in the results we announced last week. I am confident in the regulatory outlook in Germany and the UK, and in the group's opportunity to take a leading position in the US market. I remain totally committed to GVC for the long-term."


Companies 2019 Year Low Current Price Change (%)
GVC Holdings 507 615 18%
Flutter Entertainment 5525 6684 17%
William Hill 132 163 19%


It is important to remember that these stocks have represented something of a car crash for long term investors and that they remain significantly below their 2018 all-time US BETTING MARKET MANIA highs.

Current Price V. 2018 High



Companies 2018 Year High Current Price Change (%)
GVC Holdings 1170 590 -50%
Flutter Entertainment 9123 6684 -27%
William Hill 336 161 -52%


U.S. Sports-Betting Market To Hit $5.7bn By 2024

Statistics relating to the size of the UK betting market.


We Play


Event Selection Odds
Clipper Logistics Handicap Baltic Baron 14/1



We Read



The self-­evidencing brain.


Source: N=All 16/07/2019. * = Stamina Dam Side