what you see depends on where you are standing

Minimising Complexity


Faced with a sensory barrage, we seek to minimise complexity. The process is rather simple: we infer things from what is there, from what we think that we know and from what we think that others know. Three problems arise: firstly what is there can often be meaningless noise, second, we have a very bad habit of thinking that we know more than we do, and, thirdly, we can never actually know what it is that others know, unless they tell us. Apart from that it's easy.

15:00 Chepstow: RED ARMADA, who has form in the book behind Royal Ascot scorer Biometric and looks sure to appreciate the step up in trip, is going to be all the rage. The one to keep an eye on in the betting market is Recondite.



Spoofing; The Aidan O'brien trained Van Beethoven?

14:30 Chepstow : The dogs in the street have been barking up the chances of Saffran and, accordingly, much of the price action is going to centre around the tissue favourite Dilmun Dynasty.



Spoofing; The Aidan O'brien trained Van Beethoven?


Blinkers Off




Next Conservative Leader Betting Market



Can Boris go the distance? The bluff that carries you through at Oxford does, can and will allow you to pull the wool over peoples' eyes. But for how long? Consistent and blatant attempts to frame Boris as the good thing are coming unstuck and for the first time we are seeing a degree of nervousness creep in to the Next Conservative Leader Betting Market. It is only natural that if you were the muppet lumping on at 1.08 that you should this morning be feeling a little worried as Boris drifts out to 1.25 - despite a very blatant attempt over the weekend by the plunge protection squad to shorten up his odds.



Spoofing; The Aidan O'brien trained Van Beethoven?


Irish Derby 2019: Ah sure bjeasus that must be one of the lads dipping a toe in the water .....



Spoofing; The Aidan O'brien trained Van Beethoven?

Candidate Implied Probability
Boris Johnson 80%
Hunt 20%


Royal Ascot 2019:

U.S. Sports-Betting Market To Hit $5.7bn By 2024

Statistics relating to the size of the UK betting market.


Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side