what you see depends on where you are standing

Tradeable Effects


In theory, people should not be able to beat the betting market by taking advantage of price irregularities. But, people persist in their habits longer than they should, meaning that horses from particular stables show an unusual propensity to trend from one race to the next.

14:25 Ludlow - Enrilo Beware of recency bias.



The more complexity the more we deviate from the Bayes Optimal Belief.


Blinkers Off


The Tories need to beat Labour by nine points or more to be certain of winning a clear working majority in the Commons. Our own internal model has them currently with a nine point lead. (Multilevel Regression and Poststratification.) The backdrop to the 2019 United Kingdom General Election is that more voters have become promiscuous - prepared to switch their votes from one party to another at the drop of a hat - in response to political events such as Brexit. On the back of this, all of the usual caveats apply regarding volatility, churn, polling error, tactical voting, campaign swings/or lack of, (simplicty of the uniform national swing model), failure to weight for education, age group, new voters, residual idiosyncratic variation across the marginal seats, illimitable complexity.



political betting markets - skin in the game.

Nothing about the very obvious insider dealing on Betfair ahead of the Brexit Party's announcement that it will not contest Tory held seats. Betfair will of course know who it was that was trading the market between 10pm and 6am.


UK Next General Election - Overall Majority Betting Market


Outcome Implied Probability
No Overall Majority 35%
Tory Majority 65%


The 2017 UK General Election represented the final nail in the coffin for so-called prediction markets, which had been sold on the basis that they were a form of modern day oracle - a narrative that the media was quite happy to go along with. On the eve of the poll, the implied probability of a Conservative majority on Betfair was 87%. The betting market also suggested a Conservative majority of between 75-99 seats.



Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.


Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

As regards the polls, in their final published poll ICM put the Tories on 45%, a 11% lead on Labour. ComRes predicted the Tories would score 44% and achieve a 10-point lead over Labour, whilst BMG Research put the Conservatives on 46% and achieving a 13% lead over Labour. YouGov put the Tories seven points clear of Labour as did Opinium. The prize went to Survation who put the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 40%, very close to the actual result. Their poll was simply ignored by the traders in the betting market.



Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.


Listed UK Gambling Companies


Members of the cross-party group on gambling-related harm have dealt a severe blow to UK listed gambling companies just as they were once more basking in the glow of the US betting market gold rush. One of their killer suggestions would see online casinos should be subject to a maximum stake limit of £2. The report, which has the backing of leading Brexiteers such as Iain Duncan Smith calls for a raft of measures to protect vulnerable people and is said by people in the know to have the support of Boris Johnson. The recommendations include: A £2 stake limit on online slot machines; an end to betting by credit card; restrictions on so-called VIP accounts and a call for an investigation into non-disclosure agreements. The problem, and it is a very big one - is that this report is going to hang over the UK GAMBLING industry like a black cloud until after the general election and, moreover, the prospect of a Corbyn led government imposing even harsher sanctions on the industry remains a distinct possibility. William Hill, with its heavy exposure to online, and concerns, over its ability to raise the funds necessary to compete in the US betting market space, has, unsurprisingly, suffered the most in response to this announcement. Those that bought shares in the company on October 23, for example, are now nursing losses of 20%.


Companies Year Low Current Price Change (%)
GVC H 507 819 44%
Flutter E 5525 7882 32%
William Hill 132 167 21%


It is important to remember that these stocks have represented something of a car crash for long term investors and that they remain significantly below their 2018 all-time US BETTING MARKET MANIA highs. So, for example, whilst shares in Flutter Entertinment are up 32% YTD - they are still down 11% YOY, suggesting, that some in the market are STILL not confident that the proposed merger will clear the relative regulatory hurdles.

Current Price V. 2018 High



Companies 2018 High Current Price Change (%)
GVC H 1170 819 -23%
Flutter E 9123 7882 -11%
William Hill 336 167 -50%

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