what you see depends on where you are standing

Short Cuts



The brain, a complex adaptive system, predicts by drawing on prior experience. In order to be able to model the ever changing environment, it is wired to jump to categorise and to reach fast conclusions. More often than not we feel compelled to go along with the crowd. Frankie riding a short priced well supported favourite at Goodwood - that will do nicely.



The trading graph for Secret Thought Arkle Finance Cheshire Oaks


Blinkers Off




Sir Dragonet


Running style very cleary suggests that Sir Dragonet will not be suited to the cambers of Epsom. But why let that small fact put you off .... Regardless he is almost certain to spearhead a seven-strong challenge for Aidan O'Brien in the Investec Derby on June 1 after the trainer revealed that Epsom was the preferred choice of the lads. The concern has to be why it was if the lads were so certain of sending him to Epsom that O'Brien bothered to mention the fact that he might be sent to Chantilly. Somebody, somewhere, at some point in time very obviously suggested that he would make a better French Derby horse. STRANGE.





Epsom Derby 2019 Betting Market


Horse Implied Probability
Sir Dragonet 27%


The betting market is not buying in to the notion that the US is set to a return to normalcy.


US Presidential Election 2020 Betting Market


Candidate Implied Probability
Donald Trump 48%


Like it or not, this betting market suggests that we are heading for a hard brexit. A deluge of money seen for Boris Johnson over the past ten days. Johnson is a divisive figure seen by his colleagues as either electoral stardust or as a hate figure: anyone but Boris. The odds on a late autuman 2019 general election are now also shortening.

Meanwhile Goldman Sachs on Friday raised its probability of a no-deal Brexit to 15% from 10%; "We pencil in an orderly EU withdrawal in late 2019 or early 2020, but our conviction is low........We revise up our probability of "no deal"... not because this Parliament (or indeed the next) is likely to coalesce in favor of its pursuit, but because the recent performance of the Brexit Party and the Eurosceptic credentials of the next Prime Minister may strengthen the case for including "no deal" on the ballot in a second referendum to unlock the impasse."


Next Conservative Leader Betting Market


Candidate Implied Probability
Boris Johnson 48%
Dominic Raab 15%


U.S. Sports-Betting Market To Hit $5.7bn By 2024


Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side