The psychiatrist Irvin D. Yalom wrote: "Biologically, our nervous systems are organized in such a way that the brain automatically clusters incoming stimuli into configurations. Meaning also provides a sense of mastery: feeling helpless and confused in the face of random, unpatterned events, we seek to order them and, in so doing, gain a sense of control over them." The problem, and it is a big one, is that it is how the psyche is structured that determines the degree and extent to which external stimuli are internally registered. There is always a structural bias that determines the phenomenological qualities of sensory impressions. One man's scribble is another man's masterpeice.
Augur the decentralized prediction/betting market protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain stumbles along, attracting very little liquidity to anything other than crypto related markets (Only $1,244.55 traded to date on the who will win the 2018/19 English Premier League betting market, for example). One of the main markets on the platform, by volume, concerns Augur traders betting that the Augur Rep cryptocurrency will appreciate in value by the end of 2018. To the question Will REP token trade above $32 at the end of 2018? only 32% of those that have traded in the market are saying yes - hardly an overwhelming vote of confidence in the Augur Exchange.
You can track the live betting markets on Augur by clicking on the link below. It is notable that most of the sports betting markets on Augur have attracted no liquidity whatsoever. So, as it stands, Augur is being used as a platform on which to hedge crypto and not much else. To the question, what is the impact that the blockchain will have on the betting market, the answer, based on what we have seen so far, is none. If the fate of a new technology can really be predicted through observing the way that it is adoped by the gambling and porn industries, then the blockchain/crypto axis can be said to be on life support. As of the morning of 18 October 2018 Augur Rep is up 1% at around $12.75 USD.
The only reason that the currency has any value at all is because of the significant holding of other cryptocurrencies held by the parent company Augur. In other words, Augur is the proverbial sleight of hand busted flush: the true value of the underlying business is 0 USD. I continue to ask the CEO's of Augur and Gnosis to put their egos aside and to do the good thing and return all monies to early investors whilst there is still some money left in the coffers.
In what many have seen as a Gerald Ratner moment par excellence the co-founder of Augur, Joey Krug recently described Augur as "the most complicated decentralized app on the blockchain of Ethereum.", Something with which we wholeheartedly concur.
US Betting Market
It is becoming increasingly clear that the newly regulated US betting market will be fiercely competitive. As per usual, early forecasts of a bumper bonanza for UK and Ireland based betting companies have been pared back. This is not surprising when one considers that nobody has, or indeed, can have, any understanding of the structure of the environment that they are going to be trading in. Which states will permit sports betting in a retail environment and which states will permit only online sports betting? Fierce competition equates to increased marketing costs and ultimately to reduced profitability for everyone.
UK Bookmakers are once more on the back foot this morning, following the news that the UK government is seriously considering the bringing forwards of its plans to reduce the maximum stake on fixed-odds betting terminals from £100 to £2. The move, which was initially scheduled for April 2020 could now be implemented during 2019. A spokesperson for the government was quoted as saying "We are looking at whether it could be brought forward...it may be possible to implement the change as early as April 2019, to coincide with the new tax year.". On the back of the news shares in UK bookmaker William Hill have been marked down 2% in early trading.
Paddy Power Betfair (singular) has been fined £2.2 million by the Gambling Commission after an investigation found the company had failed to protect customers and stop stolen money being gambled on its various websites including the Betfair Exchange. Richard Watson, Gambling Commission Executive Director, said: "As a result of Paddy Power Betfair’s failings significant amounts of stolen money flowed through their exchange and this is simply not acceptable. Operators have a duty to all of their customers to seek to prevent the proceeds of crime from being used in gambling. These failings all stem from one simple principle – operators must know their customer. If they know their customer and ask the right questions then they place themselves in a strong position to meet their anti-money laundering and social responsibility obligations."
Concern yourself with things before they come into existence. (Tao Te-Ching).
Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side