Four miillion traded in the Betfair Presidential betting market, and traders remain all at sea.
In a recent poll, 65% of French voters said that they were against Francois Fillon standing. This
followed on from an announcement from the police that they would continue their investigation into
Fillon regarding money that he had paid to his wife and children. Foolishly the market has simply
decided to ignore this information. Fillon, who earlier in the week was as heigh as 9.0 on Betfair
is this morning back at 3.9. Backing Fillon at these prices at this point in time constitutes a very risky
trade indeed, and it would be no surprise were he to once again to take a walk in the market, once the
latest news out of France has been properly assimilated. In a bid to annoy no one, Macron has made his
position clear on nothing.
French presidential election, 2017 - Probabilities
|Outcome||Current Implied Probability|
Source: Betfair. 20/02/2017.