what you see depends on where you are standing

Agreeing to disagree

People who inhabit betting markets agree to disagree and what they agree to disagree about is information and how to interpret it. Punters spend most of their time trying to be ahead of the game, without ever realising that they are actually part of it. The illusion of control leads them to believe that they are the only ones that know the true price of anything; when, in fact, the true price is something that is only ever revealed when an event has concluded. The example, of Third Wind (below) highlights the danger of a betting strategy in which the price itself is taken as being the singular most important source of information.

Attempts to frame skill when it is really luck come unstuck.

Blinkers Off

Gnosis the crypto currency prediction betting market exchange continues it lonely march towards zero; CURRENTLY trading at $9.65 USD down -17.57%. This is how much you would have lost had you bought the prediction market cryptocurrency Gnosis at the top of the market, when we, and we alone, predicted that it was worthless.

Companies Year High Current Price Change (%)
Gnosis 392 9.65 -98%

Betting markets have evolved significantly over the past twenty years, driven by new technologies, and the betting market itself has become more difficult to anticipate as traditional participants have been systematically replaced by punter-scalping algos, focused on betting that the market will continue moving in a prevailing direction. Accordingly, trying to arbitrarily predict the path of a betting market price over the short term is a mugs game and one that leads directly to the poor house. The secret centres around the ability to search and discover organised patterns of information through drawing inferences from combinations of data sets within, or against a wider theoretical paradigm. In other words outsmarting the algos. Few manage to do it, but those that do are richly rewarded.

Bettson: QUARTER OCTOBER – DECEMBER 2018:Sportsbook revenue was 341.4 (359.3) million, a decrease of 5 percent. Of particular interest was the following statement from the company: New big players entering into the Swedish online casino market has changed market conditions and we expected to see an impact in this segment. These factors, together with high bonus costs, made a challenging start of the year in Sweden. Careful What You Wish For.

UK bookmakers are facing several challenges across different parts of their business at the same time, which create quite a bit of idiosyncratic risk, and many variables that are unknowable. Accordingly, it is no great surprise to see them fail to recover in line with the rest of the market.

Concern yourself with things before they come into existence. (Tao Te-Ching).

Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side