what you see depends on where you are standing

Agreeing to disagree


People who inhabit betting markets agree to disagree and what they agree to disagree about is information and how to interpret it. Punters spend most of their time trying to be ahead of the game, without ever realising that they are actually part of it. The illusion of control leads them to believe that they are the only ones that know the true price of anything; when, in fact, the true price is something that is only ever revealed when an event has concluded. The example, of Third Wind (below) highlights the danger of a betting strategy in which the price itself is taken as being the singular most important source of information.



Attempts to frame skill when it is really luck come unstuck.

Blinkers Off




Augur Update: Fools Gold


It is notable that most of the sports betting markets on Augur, the crypto prediction market have attracted no liquidity whatsoever. So, as it stands, Augur is being used as a platform on which to hedge crypto and not much else. As of the evening of 06 December 2018 Augur Rep is down another 17% at around $6.26 USD.

The only reason that the currency has any value at all is because of the significant holding of other cryptocurrencies held by the parent company Augur. In other words, Augur is the proverbial sleight of hand busted flush: the true value of the underlying business is 0 USD.

This is how much you would have lost had you bought the prediction market cryptocurrencies Augur and Gnosis at the top of the market. And yes, that is right, if you bought the Augur cryptocurrency at the top of the market you are now looking at a loss of 93! As I have repeatedly stated there is no intrinsic value in either of these companies: there valuation is disrectly linked to their holdings of Bitcoin and Ethereum. They are effectively shell companies. There is no reason whatsoever why anybody would hold these cryptocurrencies instead of Bitcoin and Ethereum. And indeed, any bounce that they do regsiter will come about only because of a recovery in these currencies.





Companies Year High Current Price Change (%)
Gnosis 392 9.37 -98%
Augur 109 6.26 -94%


what you see depends on where you are standing

As Crypto Meets Prediction Markets, Regulators Take Notice


Predictions.Global is a website that allows users to view live betting markets on the recently launched blockchain prediction market Augur.






US Betting Market


It is becoming increasingly clear that the newly regulated US betting market will be fiercely competitive. As per usual, early forecasts of a bumper bonanza for UK and Ireland based betting companies have been pared back. This is not surprising when one considers that nobody has, or indeed, can have, any understanding of the structure of the environment that they are going to be trading in. Which states will permit sports betting in a retail environment and which states will permit only online sports betting? Fierce competition equates to increased marketing costs and ultimately to reduced profitability for everyone. Paddy Power Betfair stated as regards the US betting market in its Q3 2018 Trading Update: "We currently expect US sports betting EBITDA losses to be around £25m in 2018, reflecting marketing and promotional investment in New Jersey."

Your state-by-state guide to sports betting in light of Supreme Court ruling.


Legal U.S. Sports Betting Market Could Increase NFL Bettors By 63 Percent.






UK Bookmaker shares unloved.


The UK’s beleagured gambling companies have voluntarily agreed to cease television advertising during live sports programmes. They are not however out of the woods yet, with a confluence of factors weighing heavily upon the sector. Issues such as a ban on credit card payments and a broader crackdown on online gambling remain very much on the table, and may well form part of Labour policy. They are also sensitive to growth generally and to a fall in sterling. 2018 has been a disaster for investors in the UK gambling sector.

Government's FOBT decision influenced by 'discredited' report


Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson join FOBT rebellion





Companies Year High Current Price Change (%)
GVC Holdings 1170 691 -41%
PP Betfair 9123 6500 -39%
William Hill 336 157 -53%


Concern yourself with things before they come into existence. (Tao Te-Ching).


Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side