what you see depends on where you are standing

Switch Points

Human nature abhors a lack of predictability. We are predisposed to see order, pattern and meaning in the world. Randomness, complexity and meaninglessness all elicit feelings of tension and discomfort and leave us feeling frustrated.

There are two main basic human motives at work in the betting market at any moment in time time: the motive to resolve uncertainty and the motive for mastery. Curiosity hovers around the junction between the two - we become curious when we see something that we think might allow us to move from one position to the other.

A betting market price can be viewed either positively or negatively depending on the observers reference point. To a person just entering a betting market the 6/1 on offer may look like a bargain to the person who had earlier taken 4/1 it may look like a total disaster. New information provides an ever changing idea of what there is to be known, and serves to shift one's anchor.

We all have unconscious switch points - that is, a point at which we switch from relatively slow methodical thought processes … to faster, more habitual, unconscious automatic (reflexive) behavior. Spoofers capitalise upon this in thinly traded betting exchange betting markets markets through the manufacture of sudden and unexpected price swings, that are designed to trigger the startle reflex and to flush people out of their positions.

23 April 2019. 3:05 Yarmouth. Monoxide. The relatively unexposed and improving son of Galileo who was weak in the betting market when scoring at Chelmsford has more ticks in the box than any of his rivals. The betting market will speak as to his chances in what on paper looks like a very tight little context.

Blinkers Off

In February 2019 Plus500 lost one-third of its value, because of tighter rules on contracts-for-difference, and following on from the company's revelation that it had suffered a 103m loss from client trading in 2017, having previously stated it had not incurred any losses from bets with customers. Roll on to April 2019 and Plus500 again shed more than a third of its market value after it revealed an 82 per cent tumble in first-quarter revenue. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that Odey Asset Management may have taken another twenty million hit on its 11% holding of in Plus500. Many small retail investors who bought into the story that Plus500 was some sort of Bitcoin play have had their lives destroyed by the collapsing share price. A classic too good to be true story.

Companies 2018 Year High Current Price Change (%)
PLUS500 2043 495 -66%
CMC Markets 205.5 77 -63%
IG GROUP 954 551 -43%

Concern yourself with things before they come into existence. (Tao Te-Ching).

Source: N=All 25/05/2018. * = Stamina Dam Side