what you see depends on where you are standing

Heuristics and Biases


People have written entire books about heuristics and biases. There is however, a simple hack and that is the fact that many biases and heuristics like the confirmation bias, conservatism, familiarity bias, recognition heuristic, confirmation bias, status quo bias, system justification, normalcy bias, illusion of truth, and the not invented here bias, all actually share one thing - the tendency of the human mind to seek out those things that conform to its current state of belief.

15:50 Pontefract - Sometimes it pays to quell the pathological need to be be clever. Or to put it another way, there is little point in searching for an angle that simply does not exist. Wyclif @ 4.4 is likely to be the benefactor of any weakness behind the favourite Grand Rock. Freyja is the one most open to spoofing.



The Curse of Regulated Betting Markets: Betsson and Kindred Group struggle in Sweden.

16:05 Sedgefield 20 October 2019 - The old Skelton drifter. Many horses from the stable drift significantly, but punters consistently fall into the trap of focusing too much on recent events and continue to back the stable's horses as though the drift never actually happened. This is a feature that we will focus in on as the jump season unfolds.



The Curse of Regulated Betting Markets: Betsson and Kindred Group struggle in Sweden.


Blinkers Off




UK Next General Election - Overall Majority Betting Market


Outcome Implied Probability
No Overall Majority 53%
Tory Majority 47%

On the eve of the 2015 UK General Election, the implied probability of a Conservative Majority (the actual outcome) on Betfair was 7%. Six days later the Tories won 330 of the 650 seats — an overall majority.

The political betting market on the betting exchanges are tightly controlled by a small number of between 10 and 20 whales, all of whom control the flow and direction of the betting market and earn their keep by quietly arbitraging each other. No wisdom of crowds at work here. Political betting markets, unlike horse race betting market, are not predicated on the back of a long line of form, do not contain insiders and cannot be calibrated. No OVERALL Majority is now trading at 1.90 from 1.72 two weeks ago.



 Dawaaleeb has been found a good opportunity of his current mark.


Listed UK Gambling Companies


We have consistently stated that given the potential upside from their ventures in to the US betting market space that the UK listed gambling companies would be able to generate idiosyncratic growth in excess of the broader global economy. The recent performance of the shares in these companies in the wake of the recent market sell off has supported our thesis. The star performer to date has been GVC Holdings - up 42% from its year low. As we have pointed out elsewhere, many believe, that in an industry of homogenous strategies driven by coercive isomorphism, it is only a matter of time before the bread head that runs the company announces a major US betting market deal. Perhaps he may also be tempted by the idea of a merger with William Hill.


Companies Year Low Current Price Change (%)
GVC H 507 867 42%
Flutter E 5525 7520 27%
William Hill 132 202 35%


It is important to remember that these stocks have represented something of a car crash for long term investors and that they remain significantly below their 2018 all-time US BETTING MARKET MANIA highs. So, for example, whilst shares in Flutter Entertinment are up 27% YTD - they are still down 18% YOY, suggesting, that some in the market are not confident that the proposed merger will clear the relative regulatory hurdles.

The muppets that rushed in to buy shares in FLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT in response to the news that the company had agreed an all-share deal to merge with Toronto-listed The Stars Group earlier last week at over ninety pounds - intraday - are now significantly under water, in some cases down by as much as 18 per cent. Shares in Flutter are now below the level that they were at when the company announced the merger with Stars Group. This was not supposed to happen, and, indeed, it is another great example of people simply overeacting to the most recent information.

Current Price V. 2018 High



Companies 2018 High Current Price Change (%)
GVC H 1170 867 -26%
Flutter E 9123 7520 -18%
William Hill 336 202 -40%

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