Cheltenham Festival Market Movers
Posted by Niall O'Connor | Filed under Cheltenham Festival Market Movers, UK
The differential between the top two at the head of the Arkle betting market has never been narrower; Somerby is now 4/1 in places against a best-priced quote of 3/1 for Captain Cee Bee. In the market on the Supreme Novices Hurdle Sportingbet are a best-priced 10/11 Dunquib; those shortening up in the market include the well touted Get Me out of Here, Peddlers Cross and the Pipe stable talking horse Dan Breen (backed down from 40s in places). In the William Hill Trophy the shortening up of The Package continues, with Bensalem also tightening (11/2 the pair in places). In the Champion Hurdle betting market Ladbrokes lead the charge against Zaynar - do not be lured into the false punt on Binocular. Three on the move in the National Hunt Novices Chase; Abbeybraney; Uimhiraceathair and Richards Sundance. In the Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting the money continues to pile in for Kalahrai King; Evens Master Minded is on the way. Mourad continues to be shortened up at the head of the Coral Cup market. Paddy Power were noted clipping four horses in their Cheltenham Bumper betting market; Shot from the Hip; Drumbaloo; Al Feror and Tavern Times. In the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase the 8s Sunnyhill Boy is likely to come under pressure in the next 24hrs. In the Pertemps Final a number of new movers; Cross Kennon; Buena Vista and El Zaahan. In the Ryanair Chase the 14/1 Petit Robin is gone; as is the 14/1 I'm So Lucky for the Festival Plate. In the Kim Muir Challenge Cup the 20s Finger on the Pulse is going. In the Triumph Hurdle, more money seen throughout the day for Notus De La Tour. Early movers in the Conditionals Handicap Hurdle Betting Market were; Ashkazar, City Theatre and Grand Crus. And finally, in the Grand Annual Betting Market money seen for Tataniano and Beggars Cap.
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Betex Returns
There is some hope for those shareholders that thought they had blown their wedge in Chinese betting market facing company Betex. (Betex was famously subject to a 7m investment by somebody at CSFB prior to delisting.) On February 9 2010 Betex Group plc announced the appointment of London based broking firm, Alexander David Securities as its Corporate Financial Adviser with immediate effect. The company has allegedly been tasked with supporting Betex in implementing its corporate growth strategy and identifying options to realise shareholder value. In January 2010 announced that its Chinese operation had signed an exclusive 5-year contract with Nanjing Welfare Lottery Management Centre to launch and operate a new retail lottery concept across Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu Province. The deal allows it to sell all Welfare Lottery products from kiosk-style point-of-sale outlets in high footfall locations including supermarkets. The Company will initially operate 20 Betex and Welfare Lottery co-branded kiosks for six months before extending the retail estate to 150 by the end of 2010.
Jeremy Longley the Chief Executive of Betex said: "I’m delighted that we have secured our first agreement in the welfare lottery sector in such a high profile city. This is a significant and exciting deal for the Company and demonstrates the strength of our brand in China. I believe we have identified a retail strategy that combines two essential ingredients – short-term revenue generation and profitability, with long-term scope for roll-out and growth". Hope springs eternal.
Market Arbitrage
Unlike most of the existing literature on sports betting, which concentrates on arbitrage within a single betting market, this paper from Franck, Nüesche and Veerbeck, breaks new ground by examining inter-betting market arbitrage; that is, it examines arbitrage opportunities that arise through combining bets with traditional bookmakers and on the betting exchanges (ARBS). Using the posted odds of eight different bookmakers and the corresponding odds traded on Betfair for 5,478 football matches played in the top-five European leagues during three seasons, the authors found only ten intra-market arbitrage opportunities. However, what was most significiant was that they found 1,450 cases in which a combined bet at the bookmaker odds as well as at the exchange yielded a guaranteed positive return. Further analysis revealed that inter-betting market arbitrage opportunities emerge from different levels of informational efficiency between the two betting markets. In other words they find that bookmaker odds are less informationally efficient than betting exchange odds.
USA Endless
US facing online betting companies such as Sportsbook.Com and FullTilt Poker have been hit by new measures introduced by both Mastercard and Visa to stamp out payments to offshore betting companies, ahead of the implementation of America’s Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA). A federal appeals court has upheld a contempt order for refusing to comply with a grand-jury subpoena against two companies owned by Canadian Douglas Rennick. According to the Indictment filed in a Manhattan federal court in June 2009, since at least 2007 through to June 2009, Rennick had opened a number of bank accounts in the US under corporate names such as ‘KJB Financial Corporation’, ‘Account Services Corporation’ and ‘Check Payment Financial Co’ with the aim of processing funds from offshore gambling websites. Meanwhile a study by search engine marketing company Greenlight recently revealed that PartyPoker and 888 remain the most visible poker sites to US internet gamblers despite them not taking US bets.
Most punters lose. Most punters don't want to admit they lose. Most punters think that they know best. Many punters are prepared to pay up for get rich quick schemes; to buy the advice of tipsters and to buy the latest tome from the latest professional punter who has deciced to share his pearls of wisdom with us. Most punters will get whipped at Cheltenham 2010. Most punters are ignorant as to the inner workings of the betting market. This book, now available in paperback, goes some way towards opening the door. Paul Twomey, for example, focuses upon the efficiency of the horse racing spread betting market. He highlights situations where one can use signals in the fixed odds market to make profits in spread betting, highlighting the fact that the market makers at the spread betting companies are less influenced by developments in the broader betting market, than by the make up of their own individual books. (One wonders to what extent they are more influenced by the moves occurring on the betting exchanges?). Throughout the book, there are a number of little nuggets of information, which should be of interest to any serious punter. These include, the fact that late bettors are best identified as profit maximisers; the fact that above average returns can be obtained by backing all horses trading at less than 1.4 to 1.0; the fact that there is a best time to bet the favourite; how the behaviour of bettors in later races differs significantly from those in earlier races; how higher returns can be earned by playing "rare" numbers in the lottery; those situations where bookmakers may (falsely) believe that inside information is most at work; the perceived presence of insider traders operating in lower grade horse races, etc...We are also introduced to the notion of "Qarbs" - quasi arbitrage opportunities. The "Qarb" strategy involves exploiting price differentials amongst all of the prices offered up by the different spread betting companies. The apparent success of the Qarb strategy leads to the conclusion that; "This finding casts doubt on a hypothesis that market-makers who set quotes out of line with the prevailing market view do so because they possess better (even privileged) information, or that they are able to process a given set of information more effectively than the market as a whole."
Over the past twelve years the traditional betting industry landscape has altered beyond all recognition, as the internet has ushered in the forces of disintermediation, deconstruction and deregulation.
The lines of demarcation have become blurred - traditional betting shops now resemble mini gaming emporiums; mobile phones are being turned into casinos on the move. Betting exchanges, with their unique back and lay architecture, alongside low transaction and information costs, have upset the status quo. Regulators are presented with the task of regulating nascent and constanly evolving technologies. State monopolies within Europe are coming under pressure, whilst the US has now moved to outlaw online gambling. Within the betting market itself, inter-betting market price arbitrage is serving to undermine the role of traditional pundits and traditional form book centred structures. Providing independent and objective analysis, Bettingmarket.Com, the betting industry's online betting journal, has been there to record it all. Putting paid to the lie that the truth is something that can only be spoken about in the shadows. "Bettingmarket.Com is the most authoritative and influential betting industry journal in the world, with exclusive news,reviews, and the links that matter". Articulacy amidst a sea of obfuscation. Coherence amidst the chatter.