what you see depends on where you are standing

Redefining the Framework

First Impressions



Doncaster Selection Best-Price
1
2
3
4 Galah 11/2
5
6
7
8

Source: Stream Snipers.



All A Flutter

Flutter Entertainment: Twin Peaks. A small matter of recalibration as they say. Shares down 25% since March 22 2021. Flutter Entertainment recently announced that Matt King, chief executive officer of its U.S. FanDuel subsidiary, is leaving and that his departure will affect the timing of a potential U.S. listing of a stake in FanDuel.



 Tenebrism matched at 50 in in-running betting on the Betfair Exchange.

There are many reasons to believe that Flutter is actually in a better position to drive improving unit economics over time than its two main U.S. betting market rivals; not least because of its significant exposure to the fantasy sports space. There is also the simple fact - that we have consistently pointed out - that on an analysis of basic metrics (cheaper customer acquisition costs - significant and strong cross-sell pathways) - shares in Flutter Entertainment remain under-valued vis a vis Penn and DraftKings. The company enjoys significant competitive advantages not least a strong brand, proprietary technologies, its leading market share positioning, and the fact that it very clearly has the financial firepower to fund future growth, without having to go to the market. It is forecast that FanDuel could achieve long-term North American revenue of $10 billion by the time upwards of 75% of the U.S. population can legally bet on sports online.

On the basis that we should all always be looking at the places where the crowd isn't - one can imagine some interest at these levels (124). Two grounds for optimism: there will be plenty of top executives happy to lead FanDuel; two, it is clear that the flotation of FanDuel was on the cards and will be on the cards again in the future. And if the valuations of these companies continue to tumble those parties that are interested in both 888 (below 360) and Entain (below 1450) will eventually be tempted out to launch their bids - suggesting that there is a natural floor that may soon be in place.

Company 52 WH Price
Draft Kings 73 41
Flutter Ent 170 127


NOISE NOISE NOISE


It has long been known that predictions and decisions generated by simple statistical algorithms can be significantly more accurate over an extended period of time than those made by experts, even when the experts have access to more information than the formulas use. It is seldom acknowledged that the key advantage of the algorithms is that they are noise-free: Unlike as is the case with humans, a formula will always return the same output for any given input and it is the element of superior consistency that allows even simple and imperfect algorithms to achieve greater accuracy than human professionals. In this book Kahneman et al explain the difference between noise and bias and look at how we can all audit the level and impact of noise on our decision making process. Where there is judgment, there is noise—and usually more of it than you think. When new data comes along that goes against our beliefs, we typically tend to overlook it; so having an awareness of this potential bias and recognizing it, and being able to adjust our prior beliefs if new data disproves them, is critically important if we are to learn to see through the noise.




Second Thoughts



Peer-to-Peer Crypto Betting Markets


Augur continues to catch a bid - now trading up 75% since the January lows - but down 17% in the past twenty four hours on very heavy volume. Augur reached a year high of $52 on April 17.


Company Current Valuation
Augur $35

Subject: Prediction Market Crypto/Augur Prediction Markets.



Warren Buffett



"Eventually, of course, the party ends, and many business “emperors” are found to have no clothes. Financial history is replete with the names of famous conglomerateurs who were initially lionized as business geniuses by journalists, analysts and investment bankers, but whose creations ended up as business junkyards." .



U.S. Betting Market: A Need To Know Basis