what you see depends on where you are standing

The Semiotic Matrix

Betting markets are social systems involved in shared processes of meaning-making. These processes constitute the semiotic matrix (Mitchell, 1998) to which traders are bound together as a distinct system. This semiotic process is bi-directional: on the one hand the system (the betting market) is constituted by its elements' (traders) use of communicational patterns. On the other hand, the system's elements evolve through their active participation in the system's dynamics and in the development and transmission of their shared patterns of communication.

14:00 Musselburgh Oscar Clouds Money will talk.

Many of us woke to find that our Betfair accounts had been burgled following the disqualification of Bingo Dolivate in the 17:00 Carlisle yesterday. As was anticipated (graph 2 below) the horse took a significant walk in the market early doors before being backed heavily into favourite; once again demonstrating the degree and extent to which a number of whales are able to engage in sleight of hand activity to boss the early morning betting markets to their advantage.

Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

William Hill Many small investors in William Hill have had their fingers badly burnt, having jumped into the stock on the back of media stories that the company had signed a strategic partnership with CBS Sports that would give the company a major foundation vis a vis its plan to expand in the US betting market. Shares in the company are down 9% since yesterday over news of a suggested £2 cap on online casinos. For now, the market seems quite content to focus on domestic issues rather than on the potential benefits that will accrue for US expansion. Very bad timing indeed for many rookie investors who piled into the bookmaker after analysts at Jefferies suggested that its shares could more than double on the back of the CBS news.

Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

Blinkers Off

USA - Presidential Election 2020 - Next President

An election year, during which people who ought to really know better, waste days of their lives wading around in the quagmire that is the gap that exists between the polls and reality.

The implied probability on Betfair that Donald Trump will win the Presidential Election in 2020 is currently 60%.

As regards Sanders' chances Nate Silver took to Twitter on 27 January 2020 to say: "It is indeed strange. I've had a few conversations with Wall Street types recently where they don't seem to realize that Bernie is in a highly viable position and/or they think Bloomberg will magically emerge despite not really being able to explain how." The problem for Silver, who famously allowed himself to become a punter and got Trump wrong is that the betting market is now starting to see Bloomberg as a serious contender. The betting market is effectively saying that Biden is dead in the water. It is not that impressed by the Buttigieg bounce either.

Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

OutcomeImplied Probability

Source: Bettingmarket.Com Analysis. 14/02/2020.

BBC Next Director-General Betting Market

Much to the chagrin of BBC Insiders Jay Hunt remains the warm favourite to be the next director-general of the BBC in our private industry prediction market. Beyond the noise Hunt is seen as being the candidate with the most industry experience that will appease the corporation's Tory critics. It is understood that the Tories have indicated that their candidate of choice is Elisabeth Murdoch, but, that they are unlikely to get her this time around. Despsie much chatter it is understood that insiders have consigned themselves to the fact that they will not be getting the job, with many already planning their exit strategies ahead of what is likely to be a significant cull of senior management.

Next Director-General Implied Probability
Jay Hunt 30%
Lionel Barber 20%
Elisabeth Murdoch 15%
Carolyn Fairbairn 15%
Mark Thompson 5%
Fran Unsworth 4%
James Purnell 2%
Tim Davie 2%
Glyn Isherwood 1%
Others 6%

Source: Bettingmarket.Com Analysis. 17/02/2020.

" Investing is a game of skill – meaning inferior players can’t expect to be above average winners in the long run. But it also includes elements of chance – meaning skill won’t win out every time. In the long run, superior skill will overcome the impact of bad luck. But in the short run, luck can overwhelm skill, and the two can be indistinguishable." (Howard Marks)