what you see depends on where you are standing

First Impressions



Leicester Selection Best-Price
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6 Fantasy Navigator
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Source: Stream Snipers.



On Having The Last Word


To believe something is to believe that it is true. So in theory, a trader when he places a trade, believes that all of his beliefs about the possibility of a forthcoming event outcome are true - otherwise why would he bother to trade? But through experience he knows full well that some of the beliefs that he currently holds to be true, will in fact be wrong (he is after all almost always trading on the back of incomplete information). So we are presented with a situation whereby a so-called rational trader believes that every one of his/her beliefs are true, whilst knowing that some of them are going to be proven to be false. That is the paradox - belief is actually nothing more than an experiment in knowledge acquisition. New information should always lead one to update ones beliefs, (perspectives should always be able to be changed when new information becomes available) - but this is far from being the case. People are essentially resistant to countervailing evidence: and indeed the backfire effect reveals that people will actually actively double down on their belief (or set of beliefs) when presented with contradictory evidence. Because most people are obsessed with having the last word they are resistant and unwilling to entertain other possibilities. Their back of a fag packet systems always exclude something, but what if what they have excluded was the most important piece of the jigsaw?



Second Thoughts


The table below clearly reveals that gambling stocks are no longer the safe haven that they once were. Investors in 888, for example, do not need to be reminded that they have lost 79% of their investment in the past year. In the longer term the only people who ever make money trading are are those that trade whilst overall market conditions are still unfavorable. Each of these gambling stocks has associated with it idiosyncratic growth stories that are currently being ignored amidst the broader market turmoil and accordingly there is a good case to be made that this morning would be a good point to dip ones toe into the water. Flutter's revenues in the US, for example, account for a third of its global betting business and they are projected to account for half before long and the company will be seen as cheap by any overseas buyer given the recent slide in sterling. A US listing for FanDuel is still not out of the question.

We shall return to the price action at the start of next year to see where the market is pricing these stocks. To obtain the real time price please click on current price below.





Companies 2018 Year High Current Price Change (%)
Entain 2222 1050 -50%
Flutter Entertainment 15475 9900 -36%
888 447 95 -79%

Prices as of the morning of 29/09/2022. LSE.



Peer-to-Peer Crypto Betting Markets


Augur the crypto prediction market currency is trading at $7. Augur reached a two year high of $52 on April 17 2021.


Company Current Valuation
Augur $7

Subject: Prediction Market Crypto/Augur Prediction Markets.



Polls/Prediction Markets Wrong Again


There is a dominant narrative that pertain amongst the prediction market fanboys - prediction markets are never right or wrong. It is a good cover story, but one that does not go down too well with those that wager in these markets (trading under the delusion/illusion of the wisdom of crowds logic) and who consistently get taken in through following the so-called smart money. As I have consistently pointed out elsewhere (ad nauseaum) prediction markets are empty vessels; they do not contain the insiders that correct the mispricings that occur in other betting markets and moreover, they simply shadow the polls and accordingly they consistently underestimate the amount of support for right wing candidates and events (think Trump, Brexit etc..).

The polls and the prediction markets (see below) once again call it wrong as the recent election in Brazil goes to second round after Bolsonaro closes gap on Lula.



The very brilliant Bacchus by Cy Twombly.


The very brilliant Bacchus by Cy Twombly.