what you see depends on where you are standing

Opening Shots

Trading Places

Newbury 17:10 One Day 9/2

York - Tattersalls Musidora Stakes - 9th Jul 2020

Serpentine was highly impressive when winning a maiden at the Curragh last week and has essentially
fallen under the radar of most punters.

First Impressions

Punters engaging with a betting market are confronted with an amiguous, noisy and constantly evolving environment. Very little has been written about how they actually go about translating their first impressions into meaningfull information that is then acted upon. What it is that they bring to the table gleaned from their past experiences, how their current psychological, social and economic circumstances influence their decision making processes, how it is that they update their beliefs in response to the arrival of new information. It is in fact generally assumed that all punters are operating under the same social, economic and psychological conditions, that they share and view the information on offer in the same way and that they respond to changes in the environment in the same manner. They don't....

The Usual-Suspect Experts

Nate Silver and his famous "Bernie is in a highly viable position tweet."

Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

Bahrain International Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed) - Ropey Guest. Who stole the value?

Sky Bet Safer Gambling Handicap - A massive day for the owners of Rhythmic Intent.

Blinkers Off

USA - Presidential Election 2020 - Next President

Before the death of George Floyd the biggest threat to Donald Trump's re-election in 2020 was his handling of COVID-19. Things have subsequently gone from bad to worse.

The implied probability on Betfair that Donald Trump will win the Presidential Election in 2020 is 43%, down from 50% a month ago. We are witnessing at first hand the implosion of the Trump presidency.

OutcomeImplied Probability

Source: Bettingmarket.Com Analysis. 06/05/2020.

" Investing is a game of skill – meaning inferior players can’t expect to be above average winners in the long run. But it also includes elements of chance – meaning skill won’t win out every time. In the long run, superior skill will overcome the impact of bad luck. But in the short run, luck can overwhelm skill, and the two can be indistinguishable." (Howard Marks)