Niall O'Connor Switzerland 2022.

Niall O'Connor

Opinion Analyst.

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"Subjective Probabilities, Like Beliefs, Are Nothing More Than An Epistemic Anchor Set Down In a Sea of Ontological Complexity."

"The undoing of most gamblers is a failure to hit the sweet spot between self-reflection and self-representation."

"I Spend 100 Percent Of My Time Worrying About The Things To Which Others Ascribe Zero Probability."

"When You Hear Hoofbeats Think of a Zebra."

"When The Herd Moves Through The Gate Get On A Cow."

"The system will only ever change when it receives information that it does not expect."

"We are talking here about a clock with many moving parts rather than a simple sundial."

"A delusion is simply a bet, the veracity of which can never be called into question. An extreme form of confirmation bias."

"In complex systems with many interlocking variables, it is never possible to manipulate one variable in a specific direction for an extended period of time"

"There is a reality independent of our current knowledge and it is what the dragon does or looks like in between that actually matters"

Niall O'Connor




There is no clear distinction between objectivity and subjectivity.

Observation never precludes involvement. We build models that are highly sensitive to our (subjective) prior assumptions; we make crude approximations; we focus on what is easiest to measure rather than on what is important; we are overconfident; we build models that rely too heavily on statistics, without enough theoretical understanding; and we unconsciously let biases based on expectation or self-interest affect our analysis. We are motivated to systemise and to make distinctions and in doing so we often exclude the things that matter the most.

  • Debiasing
  • Disambiguation
  • Reframing
  • Recalibration
  • Autoplasticity

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