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"Subjective Probabilities, Like Beliefs, Are Nothing More Than An Epistemic Anchor Set Down In a Sea of Ontological Complexity."
"The undoing of most gamblers is a failure to hit the sweet spot between self-reflection and self-representation."
"I Spend 100 Percent Of My Time Worrying About The Things To Which Others Ascribe Zero Probability."
"When You Hear Hoofbeats Think of a Zebra."
"When The Herd Moves Through The Gate Get On A Cow."
"The system will only ever change when it receives information that it does not expect."
"We are talking here about a clock with many moving parts rather than a simple sundial."
"A delusion is simply a bet, the veracity of which can never be called into question. An extreme form of confirmation bias."
"In complex systems with many interlocking variables, it is never possible to manipulate one variable in a specific direction for an extended period of time"
"There is a reality independent of our current knowledge and it is what the dragon does or looks like in between that actually matters"
There is no clear distinction between objectivity and subjectivity.
Observation never precludes involvement. We build models that are highly sensitive to our (subjective) prior assumptions; we make crude approximations; we focus on what is easiest to measure rather than on what is important; we are overconfident; we build models that rely too heavily on statistics, without enough theoretical understanding; and we unconsciously let biases based on expectation or self-interest affect our analysis. We are motivated to systemise and to make distinctions and in doing so we often exclude the things that matter the most.
Online Betting Stocks Acquire Hipster Status.
Is Flutter Entertainment Really Considering Spining-Off FanDuel?
Circumstances Propitious For Future Growth of U.S. Online Betting Space
Miscalibrated Priors, Unstable Anchors, Improper Posteriors and Inadequate Models.
The Deficient Markets Hypothesis
2020 US Election: Political Betting Markets Massively Overreact To Early Counting.
On the psychology of the betting market.
Can Stupidly Named Webis Holdings Catch A Bid?
Kindred Group and Betsson and The Curse of Regulated Betting Markets.
Blockchain Prediction Markets: A Criminal Enterprise?
Niall O'Connor: Musings on the impact of blockchain on the gambling industry.
The Gnosis prediction market and the paradox of decentralisation.
Blockchain set to disrupt traditional betting market in way that Betfair failed.
International totes stand to gain most from blockchain technology.
Blockchain: Too many sharks in the paddling pool.
- "When betting markets get it wrong." On the folly of the crowd.
- "Super Forecasters: Super Excuses. On The Art Of Being Less Wrong." Lessons from the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
- "How Bernie Sanders won the election for Donald Trump." Like it or not, many Sanders' supporters stayed away from the polling booths..
- "A Short History of the Betting Exchange Industry." How Betfair lost the plot.
- "European Gambling Law From Schindler to Engelmann." - An analysis of European gambling law.
- "The United States' War against Online Gambling" - An analysis of US online gambling law.
- "Betsham." - The story of Betfair's illfated share flotation.
- "The myth of European betting market liberalisation."
- "On the taxation of betting exchanges."
- "Sweden and gambling industry deregulation - The road to nowhere".
- Fixed Odds Betting Terminals: The Fentanyl of Gambling.
On the long, hard and fruitless battle to monetise sports betting content.
- How the UK's Labour Party gambled on casinos and lost.
- How the Internet killed off Telephone betting.
- William Hill vs. Ladbrokes: GW/EBIT Comparative Analysis 2003 - 2012..
- Betting Exchange model fails to clear regulatory hurdles.
Totalisators - Institutional rigidity hinders development of decentralised betting hub.
- Niall O'Connor - A Selection of the Key Horse Racing Essays.
Cited in over two hundred and fifty government and academic papers,exempli gratia;
- The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling. (Oxford University Press).
- The International Study of Gambling Jurisdiction.
- The use of economic theory to minimize risk in the sports betting market.
- European Commission: "Study on the funding of grassroots sports in the EU.
- Is it Time to Reconsider UK Gambling Policy.
- On the Road to Permissiveness?: Change and Convergence of Moral Regulation in Europe, July 2015.
Law and the Technologies of the Twenty-First Century: Text and Materials.
EUROPEAN UNION, STATE-SPONSORED GAMBLING, AND PRIVATE GAMBLING SERVICES: TIME FOR HARMONIZATION.
- Specification and Performance Optimisation of Real-time Trading Strategies for Betting Exchange Platforms.
- Political Economy of Institutions, Democracy and Voting
edited by Norman Schofield, Gonzalo Caballero.
- New Sources of Development Finance, edited by Anthony Barnes Atkinson, Alexander Atkinson, Professor Faculty of Economics and Politics A B Atkinson.