Statistical Guide to Finding the Winner of the 2023 Grand National.

The 2023 John Smith's Grand National, run over four and a half miles and 30 famous fences, takes place at 5.15pm on Saturday, 15 April 2023.

On safety grounds, only forty horses will be allowed to compete in the race proper. And so, at the final declaration stage, if more than forty have stood their ground, a balloting out procedure will take place from the top weight down, resulting in all horses above forty missing the race. Bookmakers it should be noted must return bets placed on horses balloted out in this procedure.

The winner of the first National held in 1839 was called Lottery and the race is often described as being such.

However, between 1952 and 2022 71% of the winners of the Grand National were returned at odds of 20/1 or less. Sixteen of the last 26 winners of the Grand National were returned at odds of 20/1 or less and thirty eight of the last 61 horses to finish in the top five in the race were below 20/1 in the betting market; somewhat undermining the notion that the race is a lottery. Having said that, with only ten favourites obliging during the same period (a mere 14%), the Grand National is not a favourites race: favourites in the race are typically the subject of late herding behaviour and typically get beaten. In 2006 Hedgehunter and Clan Royal started 5-1 joint-favourites and finished second and third respectively. In 2013 Seabass was sent off 11-2 favourite and finished 13th. 2015 saw a massive punt on the AP McCoy ridden Shutthefrontdoor, who was sent off 6-1 favourite, before finishing fifth. Tiger Roll won the 2019 renewal at odds of 4/1 - he was the first clear favourite to win in 14 most recent renewals of the race.

Odds of Winners

Odds of winners	20/1 or below	average odds	range of odds	Favourites
1952-1971	15	17/1	7-40/1	2
1972-1991	15	16.8/1	7-50/1	2
1992-2022	20	22/1	4/1-100/1	6
Total	50 (71%)	20/1	4/1/100/1	10

It used to be the case that the winner of the race was most unlikely to come from those horses obliged to carry 11.0 or over. However, this trend has been bucked in recent times, with six of the last fifteen winners of the race (40.0%) carryng eleven stone or over. The chief reason for this being that there are twice as many entrants rated 150 or higher as there were fifteen years ago ago.

Weight of Winners

Weight	10.00	10.1-.7	10.7-13	11.0-6	11.7-13	12.00
1952-1971	4	5	4	5	2	0
1972-1991	1	7	6	4	1	1
1992-2022	2	8	10	7	1	0
Total	7	20	18	15	4	1

Age matters. No horse aged 13 has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923 (Why did Pricewise tip up a 13 year old for the 2018 renewal?) and the last 12-year-old winner was Amberleigh House in 1995. The last seven year old to win the National was Noble Yeats in 2022 but you have to go right back to Bogskar in 1940 to find the next seven year old winner, whilst the last six year old winner of the big race was Ally Stoper in 1915. The last novice to win the race was also Noble Yeats in 2022 but before that we have to go right back to "Mr What" who won the 1958 Grand National for owner Mr. D J Coughan, jockey Arthur Freeman and Irish trainer and former Grand National jockey Tom Taaffe. Between 1952 and 2017, eight year olds have won the Grand National race a total of 14 times (22%). There were three eight year old winners in the last fourteen runnings of the race, and five eight year old winners in the last twenty six runnings.

Age of Winners

Age of winners	8	9	10	11	12
1952-1971	6	7	3	1	3
1972-1991	2	6	3	5	4
1992-2022	7	8	7	6	2
Total	15	21	13	12	9

In Summary

What the statistics reveal, is that the majority of winners are returned at odds of 20/1 or less, but are not favourite; they are most likely to be 8, 9 or 10 year olds. A mare has not won the race since Nickel Coin in 1951 and one hasn't placed since 1995 (Dubacilla).

As pointed out elsewhere there are twice as many entrants rated 150 or higher as there were a decade ago. Six of the last sixteen winners of the race have been weighted either 11.0 or higher - although it should be noted that on each occasion there was "good" in the going. In the 2016 renewal all of the top weights were sunk in the mud and in the 2017 renewal, which was run on good to soft going, only one horse carrying 11.0 or higher, managed to finish in the top ten. The 2018 renewal was the softest ground Grand National since 2001 and only two horses weighted over 11.0 finished in the top ten (fourth and tenth).

Every winner over the past fifteen years, except Noble Yeats, had also won a race valued at more than 17K prior to landing the big one, and every winner, except Rule the World and Noble Yeats had previously won over 3m under rules. Thirty one of the last thirty two winners of the race had run at least three times during the season, prior to taking the race, with twenty six of the last thirty one having run between four and six times. Fourteen of the last fifteen winners had achieved at least one top-three finish in their last three runs. All bar three of the last 32 National winners had raced within eight weeks of the big race. Only one of the last ten winners had scored more than twice that season.

Winners of the Grand National 2005 - 2023

Year	Horse	Age	Handicap	Rating	Runs	SP	Since Last Run
2022	Noble Yeats	7	10-10	147	7	50/1	24
2021	Minella Times	8	10-13	146	3	11/1	69
2019	Tiger Roll	9	11-05	157	3	4/1	24
2018	Tiger Roll	8	10-13	150	3	14/1	84
2017	One for Arthur	8	10-11	148	4	10/1	31
2016	Rule the World	9	10-07	148	7	33/1	34
2015	Many Clouds	8	11-09	163	4	25/1	29
2014	Pineau de Re	11	10-06	143	6	25/1	23
2013	Auroras Encore	11	10-03	137	5	66/1	35
2012	Neptune Collonges	11	11-06	157	4	33/1	55
2011	Ballabriggs	10	11-00	150	3	14/1	35
2010	Don't Push It	10	11-05	153	3	10/1 JF	23
2009	Mon Mome	9	11-00	148	6	100/1	21
2008	Comply or Die	9	10-09	139	4	7/1 JF	41
2007	Silver Birch	10	10-06	138	5	33/1	25
2006	Numbersixvalverde	10	10-08	138	6	11/1	27
2005	Hedgehunter	9	11-01	144	6	7/1 F	49

Selections for the 2023 Grand National

Horse	Price
Delta Work	25/1

	BP

Source: Bettingmarket.Com analysis. 21/02/2023. BP = Best Price Taken on Betting Exchanges.