The Grand National 2024 , run over four and a half miles and 30 famous fences, takes place on Saturday, April 13 2024.

On safety grounds, only forty horses will be allowed to compete in the race proper. And so, at the final declaration stage, if more than forty have stood their ground, a balloting out procedure will take place from the top weight down, resulting in all horses above forty missing the race. Bookmakers it should be noted must return bets placed on horses balloted out in this procedure.

The winner of the first National held in 1839 was called Lottery and the race is often described as being such. However, between 1952 and 2022 71% of the winners of the Grand National were returned at odds of 20/1 or less. Sixteen of the last 26 winners of the Grand National were returned at odds of 20/1 or less and thirty eight of the last 61 horses to finish in the top five in the race were below 20/1 in the betting market; somewhat undermining the notion that the race is a lottery. Having said that, with only ten favourites obliging during the same period (a mere 14%), the Grand National is not a favourites race: favourites in the race are typically the subject of late herding behaviour and typically get beaten. In 2006 Hedgehunter and Clan Royal started 5-1 joint-favourites and finished second and third respectively. In 2013 Seabass was sent off 11-2 favourite and finished 13th. 2015 saw a massive punt on the AP McCoy ridden Shutthefrontdoor, who was sent off 6-1 favourite, before finishing fifth. Tiger Roll won the 2019 renewal at odds of 4/1 - he was the first clear favourite to win in 14 most recent renewals of the race.

The presence of a multitude of betting market participants with differing views, expectations, and strategies can result in a constant process of price discovery and adjustment, as each individual tries to position themselves advantageously in the market. This ongoing process of negotiation and adaptation can lead to the creation of new opportunities and the emergence of unexpected outcomes, contributing to the contingent nature of betting markets. Herding and information cascades can lead to horses being heavily supported in the last ten minutes of trading that do not warrant being supported given the underlying conditions - it is the same every year - and it is happenings like this that make the race such a profitable event for the bookmakers. A statistical analysis of the so-called late plunge horses over the past thirty years (McMorran (2023) revealed that anybody following the money in these circumstances would be significantly out of pocket.

A study by Dr. Tim Parkin, a veterinarian and epidemiologist at the University of Glasgow, found that the effect of additional weight on a horse's performance depends on the distance and the going. According to the study, horses carrying more weight experience a more significant decline in performance as the going becomes softer. In soft or heavy going, the energy required to overcome the resistance of the ground increases, and horses carrying more weight may struggle to maintain their performance over long distances. Another factor to consider is that the energy cost of locomotion increases non-linearly with the weight carried by the horse. This means that the extra weight may have a more significant impact on the horse's performance than one might intuitively expect.

It used to be the case that the winner of the race was most unlikely to come from those horses obliged to carry 11.0 or over. However, this trend has been bucked in recent times, with six of the last fifteen winners of the race (40.0%) carryng eleven stone or over - although it should be noted that on each occasion there was "good" in the going. In the 2016 renewal all of the top weights were sunk in the mud and in the 2017 renewal, which was run on good to soft going, only one horse carrying 11.0 or higher, managed to finish in the top ten. The 2018 renewal was the softest ground Grand National since 2001 and only two horses weighted over 11.0 finished in the top ten (fourth and tenth). Since Bobbyjo won the race in 1999 no other horse has winner carried less than 10st 3lb to victory.

Age still matters. No horse aged 13 has won since Sergeant Murphy in 1923 (Why did Pricewise tip up a 13 year old for the 2018 renewal?) and the last 12-year-old winner was Amberleigh House in 1995. The last seven year old to win the National was Noble Yeats in 2022 but you have to go right back to Bogskar in 1940 to find the next seven year old winner, whilst the last six year old winner of the big race was Ally Stoper in 1915. The last novice to win the race was also Noble Yeats in 2022 but before that we have to go right back to "Mr What" who won the 1958 Grand National for owner Mr. D J Coughan, jockey Arthur Freeman and Irish trainer and former Grand National jockey Tom Taaffe. Between 1952 and 2017, eight year olds have won the Grand National race a total of 14 times (22%). There were three eight year old winners in the last fourteen runnings of the race, and five eight year old winners in the last twenty six runnings. In recent years the the Grand National has been dominated by horses aged eight or nine, with eight of the last nine winners of the race falling into this category.