what you see depends on where you are standing

Internal Working Models


Internal working models operate unconsciously and are generally resistant to change. When change does occur it comes about through the development of epistemic trust - defined in this instance as the ability to receive and treat new knowledge from others as personally relevant and therefore capable of modifying our own internal working model.

16:30 Kempton Prince of Rome Look for the late money.



Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

William Hill Many small investors in William Hill have had their fingers badly burnt, having jumped into the stock on the back of media stories that the company had signed a strategic partnership with CBS Sports that would give the company a major foundation vis a vis its plan to expand in the US betting market. Shares in the company are down 9% since yesterday over news of a suggested £2 cap on online casinos. For now, the market seems quite content to focus on domestic issues rather than on the potential benefits that will accrue for US expansion. Very bad timing indeed for many rookie investors who piled into the bookmaker after analysts at Jefferies suggested that its shares could more than double on the back of the CBS news.



Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.


Blinkers Off



USA - Presidential Election 2020 - Next President



An election year, during which people who ought to really know better, waste days of their lives wading around in the quagmire that is the gap that exists between the polls and reality.

The implied probability on Betfair that Donald Trump will win the Presidential Election in 2020 is currently 60%.

As regards Sanders' chances Nate Silver took to Twitter on 27 January 2020 to say: "It is indeed strange. I've had a few conversations with Wall Street types recently where they don't seem to realize that Bernie is in a highly viable position and/or they think Bloomberg will magically emerge despite not really being able to explain how." The problem for Silver, who famously allowed himself to become a punter and got Trump wrong is that the betting market is now starting to favour Bloomberg over Sanders. Indeed, the betting market is effectively saying that Biden is dead in the water. It is not that impressed by the Buttigieg bounce either.



Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.


OutcomeImplied Probability
Trump60%
Bloomberg17%
Sanders14%
Biden4%
Buttigieg4%

Source: Bettingmarket.Com Analysis. 14/02/2020.

" Investing is a game of skill – meaning inferior players can’t expect to be above average winners in the long run. But it also includes elements of chance – meaning skill won’t win out every time. In the long run, superior skill will overcome the impact of bad luck. But in the short run, luck can overwhelm skill, and the two can be indistinguishable." (Howard Marks)