what you see depends on where you are standing

Newcastle Day 2

Newcastle - Trading Places

Newcastle 16:15 June 2 Navajo Spring 16/1

Source: T.Smith

U.S. states to look to online gaming to fill budget gaps

Morgan Stanley raises the possibility that as U.S. states cope with challenged finances due to the coronavirus, they could look to online gaming to fill budget gaps. " You might recall our podcast a few weeks back when we talked about the hole in state budgets. It's going to be as high as $375 Billion in our view. And even if states use their rainy day funds and freeze spending at current levels, they're still over two hundred billion dollars short. Now, of course, Congress could just come in and appropriate that money to the states and there's increased discussion in D.C. about the possibility. But let's assume for a moment this doesn't happen. This is where online gambling comes in. My colleague Thomas Allen, who covers this sector for our equity research department, has been quick to note that some states have been reticent to approve and tax online gambling. But in light of this deficit, they could reconsider as they're faced with the tough choices of raising taxes, cutting essential spending, or both. Hence, budget stress could be an opportunity for market growth in online gambling, a key benefit to several stocks in the sector." Great news for those that bought William Hill at the 30p low back in March.

Companies Year Low Current Price Change (%)
GVC H 305 800 +162%
Flutter E 5684 10080 +77%
William Hill 30 140p +366%

Source:Gambling Stocks As Of Morning 19/03/2020 and 30/04/2020.

Blinkers Off

USA - Presidential Election 2020 - Next President

An election year, during which people who ought to really know better, waste days of their lives wading around in the quagmire that is the gap that exists between the polls and reality.

The implied probability on Betfair that Donald Trump will win the Presidential Election in 2020 is 47%, down from 50% a month ago.

Aufer caput, corpus ne tangito.

OutcomeImplied Probability

Source: Bettingmarket.Com Analysis. 06/05/2020.

" Investing is a game of skill – meaning inferior players can’t expect to be above average winners in the long run. But it also includes elements of chance – meaning skill won’t win out every time. In the long run, superior skill will overcome the impact of bad luck. But in the short run, luck can overwhelm skill, and the two can be indistinguishable." (Howard Marks)