English Lincoln Handicap Doncaster 2023: The Draw is Highly Significant

The Draw is Highly Significant: English Lincoln Handicap 2023

The 2023 English Lincoln Handicap is set to be run this year at Doncaster on April 1st. Each and every year, punters carried away on the tidal wave of the next good thing, choose to simply ignore the draw. Those of us, who for years, simply capitalised upon the significant positive bias shown towards horse drawn 19-22 (see table below) do not mind this prime example of the stupidity of crowds. Another common myth, propogated by many of the so-called wisdom of crowds horse racing websites (everybody simply copies everybody else) is that you want to be drawn high or low. As the second table below clearly reveals this is also not the case, and in recent years horses drawn in 9-11 have performed particularly well. It is also very clear that there are places where you do not want to be drawn - as a veritable concertina effect often squuezes horses back or blocks their run at the right time.

Suffice to say, much of the ante-post money is down the pan before the race is run, because of the soft (heavy in places) going. You are really looking for a horse who has turned in his best performances on such ground, who is well drawn, and who can boss the action. A recent run would help. The likes of Encourageable, Yanifer (recent run), Montassib and Empirestateofmind must all accordingly enter calculations.